Arthur Hayes, co-founder of BitMEX, recently shared his detailed analysis on the distinct roles of gold and Bitcoin in the global financial system. He emphasized that sovereign nations consistently prefer gold as a safe-haven asset due to its long history of stability, physical presence, and proven track record in protecting against economic uncertainty and currency risks.
Hayes stated, "Sovereign nations still favor gold," noting that governments rely on it during financial crises or geopolitical tensions for its universal recognition and reliability, which Bitcoin currently cannot match.
In contrast, individual investors are drawn to Bitcoin for its high volatility, which creates profit opportunities, and the advantages of self-custody that allow full control over funds without dependence on banks or governments. Hayes explained, "Investors like the possibility of maintaining self-custody of Bitcoin," highlighting its appeal for autonomy and inflation protection.
Hayes also projected that Bitcoin could align with gold in the long term, especially in scenarios of U.S. dollar debasement from inflation, where Bitcoin might serve as a similar hedge. However, he stressed that governments are unlikely to adopt Bitcoin at the same level as gold, leading to potential short-term performance divergences.
Additionally, Hayes pointed to geopolitical changes, such as yuan-settled oil trades between Saudi Arabia and China, as factors that could strengthen Bitcoin over time by reducing reliance on the U.S. dollar. He concluded that gold and Bitcoin may coexist as complementary hedges, with nations prioritizing stability and investors seeking growth and independence.
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