A concentrated sequence of delayed U.S. economic data, resulting from a federal government shutdown, is poised to guide financial markets through a critical 45-day period starting mid-November 2025. This backlog includes key indicators such as employment, inflation, and GDP figures, which were postponed, leaving traders without essential macro signals amid heightened volatility in equities and cryptocurrencies.
The data release schedule begins on November 20 with the delayed September jobs report, followed by a cluster on November 26 featuring the Q3 GDP revision, personal income, spending, and the October Personal Consumption Expenditures (PCE) index. These updates will provide a combined view of economic demand and inflation pressures, directly influencing Federal Reserve policy decisions on interest rate cuts.
Subsequent releases include the first clean Non-Farm Payrolls report for November on December 5, and back-to-back inflation data with Consumer Price Index (CPI) and Producer Price Index (PPI) on December 10–11. The period concludes on December 19 with final Q3 GDP figures, November personal income and spending, and existing home sales data. Weaker economic readings, such as rising unemployment or cooling inflation, could prompt earlier Fed rate cuts, boosting liquidity and risk assets like crypto. Conversely, strong data may delay cuts, maintaining pressure on markets.
For the crypto sector, this data wave is critical as it will shape expectations for early-2026 rate cuts, liquidity trends, and institutional appetite for risk. If conditions favor a risk-on environment, Bitcoin could potentially approach new all-time highs by Q1 2026, driven by improved inflows and renewed participation.
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