Uniswap (UNI) Faces Heavy Selling Pressure Despite Recent Bullish Breakout

Uniswap's UNI token recently rallied from $4.73 to $10.3, breaking a key swing level at $8.6 and shifting the market structure bullishly on the daily timeframe. However, this upward momentum is now threatened by significant selling pressure, as on-chain metrics indicate a lack of sustained demand and accumulation.

On November 17, Lookonchain reported that a wallet linked to Amber Group accumulated 1.41 million UNI tokens, with 1.39 million deposited to Coinbase Prime for custody. While such accumulation is encouraging, other data points to weaknesses. On November 11, when UNI traded near $10, the mean coin age dropped sharply, and the age consumed metric spiked, signaling that dormant tokens were moved—often a precursor to selling. This was accompanied by a negative MVRV ratio, showing holders are at a loss on average, which could lead to increased selling if prices approach break-even levels.

Exchange netflow metrics showed high inflows on November 10-11, aligning with AMBCrypto's earlier assessment of heightened sell pressure. Although wallets holding 10,000 to 1 million UNI have grown in number over the past two months, not all are accumulating, and the On-Balance Volume (OBV) remains in a severe downtrend, highlighting persistent sell pressure.

Fibonacci retracement levels suggest potential support zones at $6.86 and $5.92, which could serve as buying opportunities if a pullback occurs. Derivative data further supports bearish short-term sentiment, with declining Open Interest, neutral to negative funding rates, and increased long liquidations indicating leveraged traders are closing positions. Resistance between $8 and $8.6 remains a critical hurdle, and without organic demand growth, bulls may struggle to sustain the rally.