Bitcoin (BTC) has continued to show significant weakness, with its price falling to around $91,000 and declining by 15.4% this month, according to MarketCap data. This drop has not triggered the anticipated altcoin season, as major altcoins like Ethereum (ETH), Solana (SOL), Cardano (ADA), and Dogecoin (DOGE) have underperformed even more severely. For instance, ADA plunged by 26.9% and SOL decreased by 27% over the past 30 days, indicating that capital is not rotating into alternative cryptocurrencies.
The decline in Bitcoin dominance—a metric measuring BTC's share of the total crypto market cap—has historically signaled the start of altcoin cycles, but analysts are divided. Rohit Apte, Head of Markets at Hex Trust, emphasized that an altcoin season has not yet arrived, as Bitcoin and Ethereum need to stabilize first. He framed the current drawdown as part of a deleveraging process, with traders reducing exposure without aggressively moving into altcoins.
Despite the dominance drop mirroring patterns from past cycles like 2016-2017 and 2021, on-chain data shows steady activity without signs of speculative fever. Base, Coinbase's layer-2 blockchain, processes about 19 million daily transactions, while other chains like Optimism and Arbitrum remain stable. Social sentiment has reached extremes, with Bitcoin social volume at a four-month high, often a precursor to market turns, but current conditions lack the network overloads and high fees typical of true alt seasons.
