Zcash's Parabolic Rally at Critical Juncture as Analysts Clash Over Breakdown or Continuation

Zcash (ZEC) has been one of the standout performers in the cryptocurrency market, exploding by over 1,500% since late September 2024 to hit a peak of $750 in November 2025. However, the rally has shown signs of fatigue, with ZEC correcting nearly 30% from its high to trade in the mid-$550 range, igniting a fierce debate among analysts about its next move.

Bearish analysts warn of a potential major breakdown, citing technical patterns on the four-hour chart where ZEC is trapped in a symmetrical triangle, indicating pure indecision. 99Bitcoins analysts highlight that a break below the lower trendline could trigger a measured move down to the $220–$282 support zone, which aligns with the weekly 20-EMA. Trader Nebraskangooner drew parallels to BNB's 2021 collapse, stating, 'ZEC’s parabola looks identical to BNB’s before its 2021 breakdown, and a 60% correction is absolutely possible.' Supporting this outlook, data from CoinGecko and CoinGlass reveals a 19% week-over-week drop in open interest, negative funding rates across major exchanges, and a more than 35% decline in spot volume from early November highs, signaling waning momentum. Additionally, pump-and-dump concerns have emerged, with analyst Rajat Soni noting 'fake headlines and manufactured virality' promoting unrealistic price targets like $100,000 for ZEC.

In contrast, bullish perspectives emphasize continuation patterns. ZEC is forming an ascending triangle with resistance near $738 and rising support, suggesting buyer accumulation. A hidden bullish divergence in the Relative Strength Index (RSI)—where price made a higher low while RSI made a lower low between October 30 and November 24—points to potential upward momentum, similar to a previous instance that preceded a 74.85% surge. The Money Flow Index (MFI) also shows renewed retail interest, with a move above 62.09 indicating dip-buying strength. Key levels include resistance at $606 and $743 for a breakout confirmation, while support rests at $469 and $367. Long-term bulls like Arthur Hayes and the Winklevoss twins remain optimistic, with Hayes projecting a $10,000 cycle target for ZEC.

Zcash now stands at a fragile crossroads, with technical indicators, volume trends, and macro headwinds creating a high-stakes environment. A sustained break below $469 could validate bearish forecasts, while a close above $743 may reignite the rally, leaving traders to monitor these critical thresholds closely.