Jeff Park, Head of Alpha Strategy at Bitwise, has asserted that Bitcoin's long-standing 4-year halving cycle is now obsolete, giving way to a faster 2-year cycle driven primarily by institutional factors such as ETF inflows and fund manager rebalancing. The traditional cycle, historically tied to Bitcoin's halving events that reduce mining rewards and trigger bull runs, is being overshadowed by new market dynamics.
Park emphasizes that since the launch of spot Bitcoin ETFs, billions of dollars have flowed into the market, creating demand-driven momentum that diverges from the halving calendar. Institutional fund managers often reassess their portfolios every 1-2 years based on economic cycles, reporting periods, and risk management strategies, leading to more frequent market fluctuations. This shift means that while halving events still reduce supply, they are no longer the dominant price driver; instead, ETF flow data and institutional behavior are becoming critical indicators.
Investors are advised to adapt by monitoring institutional calendars, adjusting position sizes for shorter cycles, and combining technical with fundamental analysis. Park's analysis suggests that Bitcoin's future price movements will align more closely with Wall Street's rhythms than with mining rewards, marking a maturation of the crypto market.
