On-chain data from Glassnode and Santiment indicates that large-cap altcoins, including Ethereum (ETH), Solana (SOL), XRP, Cardano (ADA), and Chainlink (LINK), are grappling with record realized losses and declining investor appeal. According to Glassnode, the Percent Supply in Profit metric has continued to fall since October, with specific figures revealing BTC at 34.91% in loss, XRP at 36.70%, ETH at 38.37%, and SOL at a sharp 74.84%. This decline means fewer coins are held at a profit, exacerbating loss pressure.
The 7-day average Realized Loss for ETH, SOL, and XRP reached its highest level since the April market downturn, highlighting growing stress among new traders. Glassnode commented, "Realized losses among new investors in major altcoins are rising, as prices continue to struggle to recover, signalling growing stress across the speculative end of the market." This loss pressure may drive new entrants to exit, potentially worsening downward price momentum.
Santiment's MVRV (Market Value to Realized Value) ratio data offers a more nuanced view, showing short-term and mid-term holders facing notable losses. For wallets active in the past 30 days, average returns are ADA at -19.2% (extreme undervaluation), LINK at -13.0% (strong undervaluation), ETH and BTC at -6% (mild undervaluation), and XRP at -4.7%. Santiment frames this as potential undervaluation, suggesting a possible recovery toward average valuation levels if market conditions improve.
Swissblock's Altcoin Vector report adds that a turnaround in Q4 depends on Bitcoin's price stability, noting, "The final Q4 stretch could offer a turnaround if $BTC stabilizes as in April, setting the stage for expansion." However, Bitcoin itself has faced selling pressure, and its recovery is seen as a key catalyst to break the persistent pessimistic sentiment.
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