Story Protocol Rebounds 40% on Prediction Market Launch and Expanded Buyback

Story Protocol's IP token has staged a significant recovery, surging nearly 40% intraday to $3.25 after a sharp 80% collapse in Q4 2025 pushed it to a low of $2.20 on November 21. This rebound aligns with Bitcoin's recovery above $85,000, highlighting broader market influences.

Key developments driving the rally include the release of the Confidential Data Rails (CDR) technical paper on November 20, which enables encrypted data to become programmable on-chain assets. On November 25, IP gained 30% intraday primarily due to two major announcements: the debut of an on-chain prediction market built with MusicByVirtuals, allowing users to trade outcomes tied to cultural and financial events like K-pop charts and cryptocurrency prices, and the launch of a full Dune analytics dashboard for transparent ecosystem metrics.

On-chain data shows robust activity, with total daily transactions reaching 72.921 million and DeFi transactions growing from 258,384 in late October to a peak of 368,575 in late November. However, DeFi TVL remained flat, and daily active accounts were low at 885 out of over 907,000 total accounts, indicating cautious sentiment among smaller holders.

The Story Protocol Foundation has expanded its token buyback program from $82 million to $100 million, with over 60% completed as of early November, and purchases continuing through February 1, 2026. This provides structural support, with technical analysis suggesting a potential retest of $4.30 if IP reclaims the EMA20 at $3.12, though failure could lead to a retrace to $2.40 support.