Bitcoin has stabilized around the $87,000 mark after a five-day bullish streak, but it struggles to reclaim the critical $90,000 level, with analysts warning of limited upside and ruling out a Santa Claus rally in December. According to Robin Singh, CEO of Koinly, the market is entering a typical Christmas hibernation, reducing probabilities of explosive price action before 2026. The total cryptocurrency market capitalization is climbing back to $3.1 trillion, driven by improved risk appetite amid an 83% probability of a Federal Reserve interest rate cut in December, as indicated by the CME FedWatch tool.
Institutional investment data from DefiLlama shows U.S. spot Bitcoin ETFs recorded $129 million in inflows last Tuesday, but November saw outflows of nearly $3.6 billion, the worst month since February. Simultaneously, Bitcoin faces significant sell-side pressure, with Binance's CVD metric hovering near -$94.8 billion, a two-year low, indicating sustained selling over buying. Long-term holders have offloaded over 803,000 BTC between November 11 and 25, averaging 53,000 BTC per day, the lowest supply since the bull cycle began. Technical indicators like the MVRV Z-Score have broken key support levels, warning of potential further declines, with Bitcoin down 25% from its October all-time high of $126,000.
