Bitcoin is on track to close November 2025 with losses of 20.60%, a sharp departure from its historically strongest month, which typically delivers average returns of 40.82%, according to CoinGlass data. This marks the second consecutive month of underperformance, as October also closed down 3.69% against an average gain of 19.92%.
The price decline has pushed Bitcoin below a key technical level, with short-term holders—defined as those holding Bitcoin for less than 155 days—facing an average cost basis of $86,787. This is only the third time since early 2024 that Bitcoin's price has fallen below this metric. Bitfinex analysts highlighted unusual buying patterns, noting heavy activity around $106,000 and $118,000 price levels, which has led to many investors now capitulating at a loss.
Despite the downturn, early signs of recovery are emerging. Santiment reported a 0.47% increase in wallets holding at least 100 Bitcoin since November 11, adding 91 whale wallets, while smaller wallets have shrunk. Bitfinex outlined two potential scenarios: a meaningful resurgence in demand or a longer and deeper accumulation phase. Bitcoin currently trades at $87,305, with market participants also monitoring U.S. Federal Reserve policy, including potential interest rate cuts and leadership changes.
Looking ahead, December historically shows quieter performance for Bitcoin, with average returns of 4.75% since 2013. The Commodity Futures Trading Commission (CFTC) has announced a new 'CEO Innovation Council' to guide digital-asset regulation, with nominations due by December 8.
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