HBAR at Critical Juncture: 50% Gain Potential Clashes with Bearish Divergence Signals

Hedera's native token HBAR is experiencing a pivotal moment in its price action, with technical indicators presenting conflicting signals for its near-term trajectory. After a sharp 10% rebound in the last 24 hours, HBAR has reclaimed previous swing highs on the 4-hour chart, suggesting a potential trend reversal. Analysts like Marzell highlight a triple-bottom pattern forming in a key demand zone, which often signals strong bullish reversals and could propel the token toward the $0.19 target, representing roughly 50% gains from current levels.

However, bearish risks loom as HBAR has traded in a tight range between $0.151 and $0.140 for almost a week, with momentum indicators flashing warnings. A hidden bearish divergence has emerged, where the Relative Strength Index (RSI) made a higher high while the price formed a lower high between November 23 and 26. Additionally, On-Balance Volume (OBV) shows a bearish divergence, with price making a higher low but OBV printing a lower low, indicating fading buyer strength. A breakdown below $0.140 could trigger a move toward $0.122, erasing recent gains.

Fundamental catalysts add complexity to HBAR's outlook. Institutional adoption is bolstering confidence, with Coinbase supporting HBAR derivatives and the IRS approving staking within ETF structures, providing tax advantages. SEC-approved listing standards are expected to streamline future product launches, while Canary Capital tokenized its HBAR ETF directly on the Hedera network, demonstrating real-world utility. The convergence of technical and fundamental factors positions HBAR for significant volatility, with traders closely watching for a break above $0.151 or below $0.140 to confirm the next directional move.