Government data reveals that India's electricity generation fell for the second consecutive month in November, dropping approximately 1% year-on-year to 134.26 billion kilowatt-hours (kWh). This follows a more substantial 6% annual decrease recorded in October, based on calculations from Grid-India's daily statistics. The decline is attributed to mild weather reducing cooling demand and a significant slump in industrial activity, exacerbated by steep US tariffs impacting exports.
Concurrently, industrial production growth hit a 14-month low in October, rising only 0.4% compared to 4% in September. The Ministry of Statistics & Programme Implementation cited reduced working days due to festivals like Dussehra and Deepawali as a key factor. Sector-level data showed manufacturing output growth slowing to 1.8%, while mining contracted 1.8% and electricity generation fell 6.9%.
Ankit Jain, vice president at ICRA, noted, "The early onset of winter has reduced cooling requirements... These seasonal variations highlight the strong correlation between temperature patterns and electricity consumption." ICRA has revised its full-year power demand growth forecast down to 1.5%–2.0% from 4.0%–4.5%, reflecting the slowdown.
Amid this, renewable energy output surged 24% in November to 18.55 billion kWh, supporting India's goal of 500 GW non-fossil-fuel capacity by 2030. However, coal-fired generation—typically 75% of India's power mix—fell 5.8% in November, with declines in seven of eleven months this year, the most since 2020.
