Sui (SUI) Price Jumps 24% on Coinbase NY Approval and Token Unlock, But Technicals Warn of Bull Trap

Sui (SUI) price surged approximately 24% to $1.70 within 24 hours, driven by regulatory clearance for Coinbase to offer SUI trading to New York residents and the smooth absorption of an $86.86 million token unlock. This expanded access to nearly 19.8 million potential investors, boosting institutional and retail demand, with trading volume soaring to $1.83 billion and market capitalization reaching $6.36 billion. On-chain metrics showed strength, including Total Value Locked (TVL) surpassing $2.6 billion and developer activity increasing by 219%.

However, technical analysis signals caution. Chart indicators reveal hidden bearish divergence in the Relative Strength Index (RSI), with price making a lower high while RSI made a higher high from November 10 to December 2. The Chaikin Money Flow (CMF) remains below zero, indicating weak institutional buying, and On-Balance Volume (OBV) shows bearish divergence, suggesting insufficient volume support. Analysts emphasize that for a sustained uptrend, SUI must break above the key $1.88 resistance level (the 0.618 Fibonacci retracement). Failure could lead to drops toward support at $1.66, $1.53, or even $1.31, risking a bull trap scenario.

The token unlock on December 1 was absorbed without a sell-off, with positive exchange netflows and over $350 million in short positions closed. Yet, the three-month trend remains down more than 50%, and without confirmed buying momentum, the rally's longevity is uncertain.