HBAR Price Drops 11% Amid Consolidation, But Technical Indicators and Government Partnerships Signal Potential Reversal

The price of Hedera's native token, HBAR, has declined by 11% over the past week, failing to break out of a consolidation range that has persisted for more than three weeks. The token is currently trading within a narrow band between $0.130 and $0.150, having rolled over from the mid-$0.14s to the mid-$0.13s, around $0.135. This follows a broader downtrend from a mid-November high near $0.18 to a local low around $0.122 in the third week of November.

Despite the price stagnation and bearish short-term structure, technical indicators suggest underlying investor confidence may be building. The Chaikin Money Flow (CMF) indicator has pushed back above the zero line after nearly a month in negative territory, signaling renewed capital inflows into HBAR. Concurrently, the Squeeze Momentum indicator shows bearish pressure weakening, with momentum nearing a bullish crossover. On-chain data reveals a net short positioning, with roughly 325M HBAR in net shorts versus 285M in net longs, indicating a bearish tilt but also potential fuel for a short-covering rally if a positive catalyst emerges.

Fundamentally, Hedera recently secured a significant memorandum of understanding with Georgia's Ministry of Justice to explore moving the national land registry onto the Hedera network and tokenizing real estate. This development builds upon Hedera's existing role as a key infrastructure partner for Dubai's 2025 initiative to place land titles and real-estate tokenization on a blockchain registry. A similar announcement in the past coincided with a 22% HBAR rally as traders priced in real-world asset (RWA) adoption.

The immediate price outlook presents three scenarios. The base case suggests continued consolidation within a $0.13 to $0.15 range. A bullish scenario could see HBAR squeeze toward $0.155–$0.16, contingent on reclaiming the $0.145 resistance and a shift in market sentiment. The bearish scenario involves a break below $0.13, potentially leading to a retest of the critical $0.122–$0.124 support level, which would invalidate the current bullish technical thesis.