Cathie Wood Declares Bitcoin's Four-Year Cycle Broken as Institutional Demand Stabilizes Market

Ark Invest CEO Cathie Wood has publicly challenged the long-held belief in Bitcoin's four-year market cycle, arguing that institutional adoption is fundamentally reshaping the asset's behavior. In an interview with Fox Business, Wood stated that the extreme volatility and deep drawdowns characteristic of Bitcoin's past—often 75% to 90%—are becoming less common as large financial players accumulate and hold the asset.

"The volatility's going down," Wood said, adding that institutions "are going to prevent much more of a decline." She suggested the market may have already seen its recent low, indicating a new stability. This view directly confronts a market pattern traditionally tied to Bitcoin's halving events, which reduce the block mining reward roughly every four years and have historically preceded major supply squeezes and rallies.

The debate over the cycle's relevance is intensifying across the industry. Analysts at Standard Chartered have stated that ETF buying has diminished the halving's role as a primary price driver, with analyst Geoffrey Kendrick declaring the old pattern of prices peaking 18 months post-halving "no longer valid." This led the bank to lower its 2025 Bitcoin price target from $200,000 to $100,000. Similarly, Bitwise CIO Matt Hougan and CryptoQuant founder Ki Young Ju have asserted that institutional inflows have effectively ended the traditional cycle.

Proponents of the cycle's evolution point to the sheer scale of institutional capital. Sentora executive Patrick Heusser noted the daily supply reduction from the last halving was only 450 BTC, calling it marginal compared to Bitcoin's trillions in market value and the billions flowing into spot ETFs. This steady, long-term demand from ETFs, corporate treasuries, and regulated products is seen as locking up supply and smoothing volatility.

However, not all analysts agree. Blockchain analytics firm Glassnode published data in August arguing the current cycle's structure—including long-term holder behavior and demand softening—still mirrors past cycles, suggesting the fundamental rhythm remains intact despite new participants.

The consensus among experts is shifting toward expectations of a market defined by longer, steadier trends rather than dramatic swings. Analysts predict future corrections may be shallower, in the 30% to 50% range, but rallies may also be more prolonged. Macro analyst Lyn Alden noted the current market lacks the euphoria typical of a major collapse and expects Bitcoin to reclaim $100,000 by 2026, albeit on an uneven path. As Bitcoin trades near $94,000, the market watches for the Federal Reserve's upcoming policy decision, which will further test the asset's new correlation dynamics with traditional risk assets.