Cryptocurrency spot trading activity has experienced a dramatic 66% decline from its January 2025 peak, according to data from Bitfinex and analytics firm Kaiko. Aggregate spot volumes across major exchanges have fallen from over $500 billion in early November to roughly $250 billion this week, with several sessions dipping toward $200 billion—levels not seen in months.
Bitfinex noted in a social media post that this slowdown mirrors extended "lulls" observed in earlier market cycles, which have historically "precede[d] the next leg in the cycle." The data, visualized using a 7-day moving average, shows a sustained reduction in trader engagement, with high-volume spikes becoming less frequent and intense as the year progressed. A notable peak of $24.4 trillion in daily volume was recorded on October 16, followed by a continued downward trend.
Analysts are drawing parallels to previous pre-breakout periods. Michaël van de Poppe highlighted a tightening price structure in Bitcoin, pointing to crucial levels at $89,000 and $92,000. He suggested that major macro events in the coming week could trigger significant volatility, with a break above resistance potentially accelerating a move toward $100,000 before 2026.
The market backdrop remains uncertain, with softer ETF inflows and a cautious macro environment. Despite a brief spike to $94,330 earlier in the week—boosted by a $962 million Bitcoin purchase by an entity named Strategy—momentum faded as traders awaited the Federal Reserve's final meeting. The Fed's widely expected 25-basis-point rate cut offered little sustained upside, as analyst Jeff Ko noted it was "already priced in."
