Hedera's HBAR token is under significant pressure, trading near a critical support level of $0.12 after breaking several short-term supports. The token is down nearly 2% over 24 hours and close to 10% for the week, with a more severe 29% decline over the past 30 days, underperforming the broader crypto market's ~10% drop.
The primary source of weakness stems from large holder behavior. The Chaikin Money Flow (CMF), which tracks big money inflows/outflows, has deteriorated sharply since December 7, dropping over 400% into deep negative territory. This indicates distribution, with large players exiting their positions. A clear bearish divergence was observed between October 10 and December 14, where HBAR price formed higher lows while CMF formed lower lows, revealing that recent price stability lacked support from institutional demand.
Despite the bearish big-money picture, one bullish signal remains: a bullish divergence on the Relative Strength Index (RSI). Between November 21 and December 14, the HBAR price made a lower low while the RSI made a higher low, a classic sign of weakening selling momentum that often precedes trend reversals. The daily RSI reading of 28.9 is in oversold territory.
The technical breakdown accelerated after HBAR failed to hold above the $0.132 support level on December 12. Since then, the chart has been making lower highs, a typical bearish setup. The token is currently testing the 78.6% Fibonacci level at $0.1235. A decisive break below $0.12 could trigger a 12-13% decline toward the next major support near $0.10.
High trading volume confirms the selling pressure is conviction-based. Activity spiked to around 166M HBAR, roughly 175% above the recent average, with hourly volume spikes during the sharpest selloffs, suggesting intentional selling by larger players rather than retail panic.
Broader market conditions are also a headwind. Bitcoin dominance has climbed to 58.56%, pulling liquidity away from altcoins, while the Altcoin Season Index has dropped to 20, its lowest level since April 2025. For HBAR to stabilize, it must reclaim the $0.13 level, which would place it back above the descending trend line and shift the structure from bearish to neutral.
