Bittensor's native token, TAO, is undergoing its first-ever halving event, expected between December 12-15, 2025. This supply-side event will slash daily emissions from the network by 50%, reducing the daily issuance from approximately 7,200 TAO to 3,600 TAO. The halving is triggered by the circulating supply reaching 10.5 million tokens, a unique mechanism distinct from time-based halvings like Bitcoin's.
The primary anticipated effect is a reduction in selling pressure from newly minted tokens, which could influence TAO's market valuation. The event is projected to cut the network's annual inflation rate from roughly 26% to 13%, a move analysts suggest could bring greater stability to the token's economics. Market participants are closely watching for potential price volatility and speculative interest following the emission change.
Concurrently, TAO's price is navigating a significant market correction. After rallying over 200% to a peak near $539, the token has retraced approximately 50%, trading around $296 at the time of reporting. This places it about 65% below its all-time high. Analyst Crypto Patel identifies a critical support zone between $262 and $215, which aligns with key Fibonacci retracement levels and a historical bullish order block.
Patel's analysis suggests that holding above this zone indicates a healthy market reset and accumulation, potentially setting the stage for a continued bullish trend with long-term price targets in the $1,000 to $2,000 range. However, a sustained break below $228, and particularly below $215, would signal a structural breakdown, opening the risk of a much deeper drawdown, possibly below $100. The outcome of this price action, combined with the halving's supply shock, is seen as pivotal for TAO's medium-term trajectory.
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