The crypto market is bracing for a significant wave of token unlocks scheduled for the week of December 14-20, 2025, which could see between $1 billion and $1.8 billion worth of new supply entering circulation. This concentrated emission event is expected to impact a range of assets, with notable pressure on Layer 2 and DeFi tokens.
Key projects facing substantial near-term unlocks include CONX, WCT, XCN, STRK, and ARB. CONX stands out with a $23.98 million unlock, representing a massive dilution relative to its $30.61 million market cap. WCT is also under scrutiny as its nearly $1 million release equates to almost 4% of its market capitalization, making it highly sensitive to supply shocks.
Other major unlocks involve Starknet (STRK), with $13.19 million set to be released, and broader attention on Arbitrum (ARB) and LayerZero (ZRO) as part of the larger mid-December unlock wave. While the STRK unlock is smaller in percentage terms given its $497 million market cap, it remains a meaningful event for short-term volatility. XCN also faces a $1.54 million emission.
The primary dynamic traders are monitoring is the ratio of unlock size to market capitalization. Tokens like CONX and WCT, where the new supply represents a significant percentage of total valuation, are considered more vulnerable to sharp price swings. In contrast, projects with a high percentage of supply already in circulation may experience smoother market reactions.
Historical patterns suggest such unlocks can lead to noticeable short-term price fluctuations and increased market volatility, as seen with assets like ONDO in the past. The event shifts supply dynamics, alters liquidity conditions, and can influence trading behavior, particularly in markets already sensitive to broader macroeconomic factors. While unlocks do not guarantee a price decline, they introduce a key variable for market participants to hedge against in the coming days.
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