Avalanche (AVAX) Network Activity Surges 7x, Technical Analysis Points to Potential Breakout

Avalanche (AVAX) has experienced a dramatic sevenfold increase in daily on-chain transactions since the start of 2025, signaling robust ecosystem growth and a maturing network. Daily transaction counts, which previously hovered below 500,000, have surged to exceed 2.5 million by mid-2025. This inflection point, beginning in May 2025, indicates heightened engagement likely driven by new decentralized applications (dApps), DeFi interactions, and gaming protocols.

Concurrently, technical analysts are observing a potential shift in market structure for AVAX. The asset has reportedly broken out of a prolonged descending channel on its daily chart, with price compression forming near the $15–$16 range. Analysts from CryptoPulse and James Easton highlight the critical $15 resistance level; a decisive and sustained break above it could signal a bullish reversal, with projections targeting the mid-$17 to $18 range in the near term. Failure to hold support near $15, however, risks a slide back toward $12.

From a longer-term perspective, analysts like Brotoshi Nakamoto place AVAX in "extreme discounted territory" within a broader descending channel. His structural roadmap suggests significant upside potential, with targets near $24 and $30, representing over 160% gains from current levels, should trend conditions improve. Falcon Trades presents an even more ambitious breakout scenario, with a confirmed move above a long-term downtrend resistance opening the door to a $55 target.

Fundamentally, the network's strength is underscored by a 1,100% year-on-year increase in average transactions per second (TPS), now consistently around 500 TPS, as highlighted by CW8900. This surge in throughput and on-chain activity provides a supportive backdrop during the current price consolidation phase.

Valuation scenarios for Avalanche present a wide range of outcomes. Its current Fully Diluted Valuation (FDV) stands at $6.33 billion as of December 5, 2025. Scenario analysis projects a bull case FDV of $40–$50 billion with strong adoption, a base case of $15–$20 billion, and bear cases ranging from $9–$12 billion down to $4.5–$7.5 billion.