Copper prices jumped approximately 2% on December 15, 2025, reversing a sharp 3% drop from the previous session. The rebound on the London Metal Exchange (LME) saw prices hit $11,656.50 per ton during midday trading in Shanghai, following a crash linked to a selloff in Wall Street's AI-related tech stocks which had dragged down the broader demand outlook.
The rally has been fueled by a complex mix of supply constraints and anticipatory buying. Copper has climbed more than 30% this year, with prices recently touching a record near $12,000 per ton before the recent selloff. A key driver is the expectation of potential tariffs on refined copper imports starting in 2027 under a potential Donald Trump administration, leading to a rush of shipments into the United States. Data from StoneX shows U.S. inflows have jumped by roughly 650,000 tons this year, lifting national inventories to about 750,000 tons.
This stockpiling is creating a global supply squeeze. Citi analysts warn the U.S. is "hoarding" global copper inventory, which could draw further on already depleted stocks outside the country. They project prices may hit $13,000 per ton in early 2026 and potentially $15,000 by the second quarter. Avatar Commodities CEO Andrew Glass described the situation as a "highly irregular distortion" driven by tariff concerns rather than normal supply-demand flows, pointing to "stratospheric new highs" while noting Chinese demand has remained weak.
Mine supply problems are exacerbating the deficit. Deutsche Bank labeled 2025 "a heavily disrupted year," with major miners like Glencore and Rio Tinto cutting output targets. Updated guidance from large producers has reduced expected 2026 supply by about 300,000 tons. Glencore lowered its 2026 production outlook to 810,000–870,000 tons due to issues at the Collahuasi mine, while Rio Tinto indicated next year's output may fall below this year's target.
The market is expected to remain in deficit, with the tightest period forecast for Q4 2025 and Q1 2026. LME copper stocks have fallen nearly 40% since the start of the year, standing at roughly 165,000 tons, with about 40% of that already earmarked for delivery and unavailable to the open market.
