The U.S. labor market showed signs of cooling in November, with nonfarm payrolls increasing by 64,000, according to data released Tuesday by the U.S. Bureau of Labor Statistics. This figure exceeded economists' expectations of a 50,000 gain but followed a revised decline of 105,000 jobs in October. The unemployment rate rose to 4.6%, up from 4.2% a year earlier, marking the highest level since November 2021.
Federal Reserve Chair Jerome H. Powell has warned that recent data should be treated with caution, citing technical distortions from the recent government shutdown—the longest on record—which prevented data collection for over a month. Powell suggested official statistics may be overstating job creation by as many as 60,000 jobs per month, raising the possibility the economy has been losing around 20,000 jobs monthly since April after adjustments.
Job gains in November were concentrated in specific sectors: health care added 46,000 jobs, construction increased by 28,000, and social assistance rose by 18,000. However, federal government employment declined by a further 6,000. The household survey showed little change from September, but teenagers saw a notable increase in joblessness, with their unemployment rate rising to 16.3%.
Separately, U.S. retail sales data for October showed no growth from the previous month, reinforcing signs of slowing economic momentum and softer consumer demand.
This economic data is being closely watched by cryptocurrency markets, particularly Bitcoin (BTC), as analysts interpret rising unemployment as a potential catalyst for Federal Reserve policy shifts. Historically, when unemployment pushes above trend, the Fed has responded with rate cuts, balance-sheet expansion (quantitative easing), and pivots toward easier financial conditions. These policy shifts have typically preceded Bitcoin's strongest rallies.
Market observers note that Bitcoin's price has experienced volatility amid the data release, but the structural environment may be shifting in its favor. The current 4.6% unemployment print pushes the Fed closer to easing than at any point in the past two years, and markets tend to price in policy pivots before they occur. Key technical indicators to watch include the U.S. 10-year yield (with a sustained move below 3.8% confirming easing expectations), USD/JPY currency pair, and Nasdaq performance as a risk sentiment proxy.
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