The Bitcoin market is preparing for what analysts describe as a potentially historic event this Friday, December 26, as a record-breaking $23.7 billion worth of Bitcoin options are scheduled to expire. Crypto analyst NoLimit has warned that the sheer scale of this expiry could trigger "something big," significantly impacting market volatility and the behavior of both retail and institutional investors.
The upcoming expiry represents the largest single-day Bitcoin options expiration the market has ever witnessed. According to Deribit data, approximately 300,000 BTC options, valued at $23.7 billion, are set to roll off. This event accounts for more than half of Bitcoin's total open interest, highlighting its concentrated impact. The strike prices are heavily concentrated around key psychological levels of $85,000 and $100,000, a setup that analysts say can sharpen price movements.
NoLimit explained the mechanics behind the potential volatility. An options expiry involves the settlement of leveraged bets on Bitcoin's price direction—calls wager on price increases, while puts predict declines. When these contracts expire, they either become worthless or force corresponding buying or selling activity in the spot market as dealers unwind their hedges. The removal of $23.7 billion in risk from dealer books in a single day is an unprecedented event and is considered a primary driver of expected market turbulence.
The analyst provided historical context, noting that year-end expiries were significantly smaller in previous years: around $6 billion in 2021, $2.4 billion in 2022, $11 billion in 2023, and $19.8 billion in 2024. The jump to $23.6-$23.7 billion in 2025 signals a major shift in market dynamics, reflecting the growing influence of institutional-sized risk being repriced in real time.
Current market conditions are poised to amplify the expiry's effect. Trading liquidity is extremely low during the holiday week, meaning each order carries more influence. NoLimit suggested that a violent price move could occur even in the absence of major news. The crucial moment to watch, according to the analyst, is the Bitcoin price action after the expiry passes, not before, as the market often experiences sideways trading leading into the event followed by a clear directional move shortly afterward.
Firm QCP Capital also noted related market shifts, observing higher futures funding rates alongside a cooldown in overall positioning. Over the past week, Bitcoin and Ethereum open interest fell by roughly $3 billion and $2 billion, respectively. The key variable post-expiry will be whether positions are rolled over into new contracts or unwound entirely; heavy rolls could keep spot price action range-bound, while widespread unwinds may translate into more abrupt moves as the year concludes.
