The cryptocurrency community is engaged in a renewed debate over the long-term threat quantum computing poses to Bitcoin's security, with developers and investors offering divergent timelines and potential market impacts. Bitcoin Core developer and Casa co-founder Jameson Lopp stated that while quantum machines are not an immediate danger, preparing the Bitcoin network for a post-quantum future is a monumental task. He estimates that migrating the protocol and users' funds to new, quantum-resistant signature schemes could "easily take five to 10 years."
Charles Edwards, founder of quantitative Bitcoin fund Capriole, issued a stark warning, suggesting that if the network is not made quantum-ready by 2028, Bitcoin's price could fall below $50,000 and continue declining. He argues that dismissing the risk could lead to the largest bear market in Bitcoin's history, potentially eclipsing past crises like FTX.
The community is split on the urgency. Some venture capitalists and investment firms believe the quantum risk is imminent and should be priced into the market now. In contrast, long-time advocates like JAN3 CEO Samson Mow downplay the near-term threat, humorously noting current quantum hardware "can't factor the number 21." Technical proposals like BIP 360, which would add a quantum-ready signature method, are being discussed, but coordination across the distributed network and diverse wallet ecosystem presents a significant challenge.
Adding broader context, Grayscale recently stated in a report that quantum computing risks are unlikely to meaningfully impact crypto markets in 2026, with such capabilities likely emerging after 2030. However, Ethereum co-founder Vitalik Buterin has assigned a 20% chance that quantum computers could break current cryptography before 2030, suggesting the risk may be more immediate than commonly assumed.
