Bitcoin entrepreneur Anthony Pompliano argues that the asset's lack of a dramatic year-end price rally may actually prevent a significant crash in the first quarter of next year. During an interview on CNBC's Squawk Box, Pompliano stated, "Given where the volatility is right now, it would be very surprising that Bitcoin's volatility has drastically compressed and yet still could get a 70% or 80% drawdown."
Pompliano highlighted that Bitcoin's declining volatility has gone largely unnoticed by holders focused on price drops. He noted the absence of both a "blowoff top" expected in late Q3 or early Q4 and the typical 80% drawdowns historically associated with Bitcoin. "We didn't get a blowoff top that I think people expected at the end of Q3, or beginning of Q4, but we haven't seen the big 80% drawdown that people normally expect as well," he explained.
The analysis points to a fundamental shift in Bitcoin's market behavior. Citing a theory from VanEck's Matthew Sigel, Pompliano suggested that if Bitcoin's volatility is halved, past 80% drops would be replaced by 40% corrections. He argued that Bitcoin's recent decline from $126,000 to the $80,000 range represents this new "40% normal" correction.
Despite short-term disappointment from some holders expecting $250,000 price targets this year, Pompliano emphasized Bitcoin's strong long-term performance. "We have to remember that Bitcoin is up 100% in two years. It's up almost 300% in three years. It has been compounding," he said, adding, "This thing has been a monster in financial markets." Bitcoin's compound annual growth rate (CAGR) over the last decade is approximately 70%.
At the time of publication, Bitcoin was trading at $87,436, down 7.39% from its price on January 1st. Pompliano concluded that compressed volatility means holders may be "a little bit disappointed on the upside" due to absent blow-off tops, but it also provides "some degree of safety" on the downside, reducing the likelihood of massive drawdowns.
Not all analysts share this confidence. Veteran trader Peter Brandt recently predicted Bitcoin could fall to $60,000 by Q3 2026, while Fidelity's director of global macroeconomic research, Jurrien Timmer, suggested 2026 could be a "year off" for Bitcoin with prices potentially dropping to $65,000.
Pompliano also outlined a broader vision for the future of finance, built on two axes: artificial intelligence (AI) for operational efficiency and tokenization (including Bitcoin, stablecoins, and tokenized gold) for balance sheet protection. He noted platforms like Coinbase and Robinhood are evolving into "the exchange for everything," aiming to trade all assets 24/7.
