The Monad (MON) price, after surging more than 29% over the last seven days and breaking out of an inverse head-and-shoulders pattern on December 24, is showing signs of strain. The breakout, which saw MON clear a key descending neckline resistance, is now being tested by three converging signals suggesting the rally may struggle as markets enter Boxing Day (December 26).
Capital flow indicators reveal underlying weakness. Despite the price breakout, the Chaikin Money Flow (CMF), which measures the commitment of larger capital, failed to sustain a move above the zero line and has since trended lower while the price rose. This divergence indicates the move is being fueled by weaker funding or smaller buyers. A similar CMF failure on December 11 preceded a price drop.
Spot market behavior confirms a shift toward profit-taking. Since December 22, net flows have reversed from over $1 million in outflows to roughly $2 million in exchange inflows, signaling investors are moving tokens to exchanges to realize gains.
Derivatives positioning shows a rapid cooling of bullish sentiment. While smart money aggressively added long exposure on perpetual swaps over the past week—with positions increasing over 99% to $89.36 million—the last 24 hours tell a different story. Smart money long exposure has dropped more than 12.23%, with the top 100 perpetual addresses cutting positions by over 216%. Public traders, typically late followers, reduced exposure by nearly 28.78%.
The immediate price levels are critical. MON currently trades around $0.02192. A sustained close above $0.026 could confirm a further 14% extension toward $0.030. Conversely, a drop below $0.021 acts as initial support, with a break below $0.018 weakening the breakout structure. A close under $0.016 would invalidate the inverse head-and-shoulders pattern, potentially sending the price back toward mid-December lows.
This technical pressure comes amid a broader fundamental context for Monad. The Layer-1 project is down 26.9% year-to-date but has seen recent gains following the circulation of roughly 3.3 billion tokens from its airdrop, which triggered initial selling pressure. Its market capitalization sits near $237 million. The project has continued building, integrating the USD1 stablecoin and launching staking via Bybit. Analysts suggest that if ecosystem usage expands and post-airdrop supply is absorbed, a conservative 2026 price target sits in the $0.05 to $0.08 range, with a more aggressive case tied to DeFi and payments adoption pushing toward $0.20.
