Crypto analyst Cryptollica has published a detailed technical analysis arguing that Dogecoin (DOGE) is currently repeating its 2020 accumulation cycle pattern. In a Dec. 23 TradingView analysis titled "DOGE: The Cycle Repeats (1W Timeframe)," the analyst identifies what he calls a "textbook fractal setup," pointing to four prior "structural points" in DOGE's history and claiming the market is now at "Point 4."
The core argument centers on pattern recognition: "the structure is rhyming perfectly with the pre-bull run accumulation phases of the past." Cryptollica frames Zones 1 and 2 as prior "boredom phases" where volatility died and smart money accumulated, with Zone 2 specifically described as "the launchpad for the massive 2021 parabolic run." The current period, labeled Zone 4, is presented as a near-mirror: "We are seeing the exact same rounding bottom formation. The price is stabilizing, forming a heavy base just like it did before the previous explosions."
The momentum argument relies on the Relative Strength Index (RSI), with Cryptollica noting that the red line around the 32 level "acts as a historical floor." He states that "every single time the weekly RSI touched or hovered near this baseline (Points 1, 2, and 3), it marked a macro bottom," and currently, "the RSI has reset back to this critical support level," which he interprets as seller exhaustion and momentum primed to flip. The analyst insists this setup "isn't just random noise; it's a cyclical reset" and suggests DOGE is sitting in "the 'Golden Pocket' for accumulation."
TradingView's editorial team endorsed the analysis, selecting it as an "Editor's Pick" to be featured on their Home Page on Dec. 23, commenting that "Good trading plans are valuable, regardless of their outcomes."
However, a cautionary perspective was provided by another user, ZarinSyed, who noted that "while the setup does resemble prior accumulation phases, it's worth noting that fractals are not deterministic — macro conditions and liquidity flows can alter outcomes." They suggested watching for DOGE's weekly close above the $0.15–$0.17 range to validate the bullish thesis and emphasized that "momentum confirmation often requires a sustained move above the midline (50)." ZarinSyed also highlighted a crucial market-structure difference: "Unlike 2020, DOGE now trades in a more mature market with ETF-driven institutional flows. Retail-driven fractals may play out differently."
Simultaneously, a separate technical analysis presents a bearish outlook. Trader Tardigrade's 4-hour chart analysis shows DOGE has broken below a rising wedge support, confirming structural failure. The breakdown suggests buyers are losing strength during the advance, with each push higher producing weaker follow-through. The $0.135 zone is identified as the clear invalidation level for the bearish setup.
The immediate downside target is the $0.12 region, which aligns with earlier consolidation and visible demand on the chart. Price action reflects a steady sequence of lower highs and lower lows, pointing to sustained but measured selling pressure typical of controlled distribution phases. At the time of analysis, DOGE was testing the pivotal $0.13 level, with a daily close below this exposing lower demand zones.
Derivatives data provides additional context, showing volume-weighted funding rates have hovered near neutral during the decline, indicating futures traders remain evenly positioned and selling pressure appears driven primarily by spot activity. Reduced leverage participation often precedes consolidation phases.
