Crypto expert and Ripple advocate Bill Morgan has challenged the popular "XRP supply shock" theory, arguing that XRP's price movement is predominantly influenced by Bitcoin's (BTC) trend rather than a diminishing supply on exchanges. This counters claims from some community members that the availability of Ripple's token is rapidly declining on trading platforms.
Morgan dismissed the theory in an X post, stating it holds no significant explanatory value for understanding XRP price action. He was responding to discussions alleging a decline of 1.5 billion XRP on exchanges, which some attribute to changing investor sentiment and whale movements to centralized exchanges (CEXs) for long-term custody.
Adding to the debate, Vet, an XRPL dUNL validator, also refuted the supply shock narrative. He argued that holders have approximately 16 billion XRP readily available on exchanges, a sufficient and dynamic supply. Vet explained that XRP listed on order books is elastic, capable of thickening or drying out in seconds based on market movements, noting that price reactions can be unpredictable—sometimes a $10 million buy pushes the price up, while a $100 million purchase may not prevent a decline.
Amid this debate, the launch of spot XRP ETFs in late November has introduced a new dynamic. These funds have reportedly accumulated over $1.25 billion in net assets, with one day in early December seeing XRP ETFs attract $12.84 million in inflows while Bitcoin and Ethereum ETFs recorded net outflows. Analyst unknownDLT suggests ETFs are rapidly absorbing supply, with about 750 million tokens absorbed in recent weeks. With only around 1.5 billion XRP reportedly left on exchanges, he predicts a possible supply shock by early 2026, aligning with regulatory clarity and institutional adoption.
Concurrently, an "XRP Rich List" analysis reveals a shifting ownership landscape. Over 6 million wallets hold 500 XRP or fewer, but they control a small fraction of the total supply. In contrast, a concentrated group holds vast amounts—just 26 wallets hold more than 500 million XRP each. As XRP's price has risen from around $0.50 to $1.75 over the past year, the cost of accumulating significant holdings has increased substantially. A $1,000 investment now buys roughly 550 XRP, compared to about 2,000 a year ago, sparking community debate on whether retail investors are being priced out of larger positions.
Market analyst Jake Claver has cautioned that simply holding XRP is not a guaranteed path to wealth, urging investors to prioritize smart custody, tax planning, and proper wealth structures. At the time of reporting, XRP price saw a minimal 0.8% increase over 24 hours to $1.9, with trading volume jumping 60.3% to $1.7 billion.
