The cryptocurrency market enters 2026 with starkly divergent analyst forecasts, centering on the trajectory of Bitcoin and its spot exchange-traded funds (ETFs). On one side, bullish projections anticipate massive institutional inflows, while a prominent bear warns of a potential 90% price collapse.
Bullish Case: ETF Distribution and Institutional Adoption
Spot Bitcoin ETFs, which launched in January 2024, have already attracted over $137 billion in assets under management, holding nearly 7% of the total Bitcoin supply according to Dune Analytics. Analysts like André Dragosch, head of research at Bitwise, predict an "aggressive increase" in net inflows for 2026, potentially pushing ETF assets toward $180–220 billion. This optimism is fueled by a "trifecta of catalysts": regulatory clarity, expected Federal Reserve interest rate cuts, and a pivotal shift in institutional distribution.
Dragosch highlights that major wealth management platforms, including Wells Fargo, Bank of America, and Vanguard, have now opened access to Bitcoin ETFs for their clients. "That means tens of thousands of wealth advisors will now start distributing these products across the US," he told DL News. Katherine Dowling of the Bitcoin Standard Treasury Company emphasized the significance of "big banks actively recommending Bitcoin exposure." This distribution network, combined with the inclusion of Bitcoin ETFs in 401(k) retirement plans, is seen as unlocking trillions in potential capital.
Dom Kwok, a former Goldman Sachs analyst, noted that wealth managers at major banks now suggest client allocations of 1% to 5% into crypto, viewing it as a return booster and hedge against currency devaluation. Macro conditions are also seen as favorable. Brian Huang, CEO of Glider, stated, "the Fed is lowering interest rates. That should bode well for risk assets like Bitcoin ETFs," with a price target of $150,000. Bitwise's Dragosch echoed this, expecting a "re-acceleration in global growth and return in risk appetite" due to global monetary easing.
Bearish Warning: Mounting Competition and "Post-Inflation Deflation"
In stark contrast, Bloomberg Intelligence strategist Mike McGlone warns Bitcoin could fall 90% to $10,000 in 2026. His primary reason is mounting competition, arguing that while gold has only three main competitors (silver, platinum, palladium), Bitcoin now faces "millions of digital asset competitors." McGlone's bearish call comes as Bitcoin trades around $88,275, roughly 30% below its October all-time high of $126,000.
McGlone points to a "post-inflation deflation" paradigm where asset prices crash after an inflationary cycle. He warns 2026 will be difficult for all asset classes, with surging gold prices potentially "front-running a 2026 drawdown for US stocks" and creating headwinds for all risk assets, including crypto. Supporting his cautious view, Bitcoin ETFs recorded significant outflows in late 2025, with $1 billion in December sell-offs adding to November's $3.5 billion drawdown according to DefiLlama data.
Mixed Market Sentiment and Other Voices
Other analysts offer more moderate or bullish perspectives. Ed Yardeni of Yardeni Research expects economic productivity and market gains to "skyrocket" in 2026, driven by AI, which could increase appetite for risky assets like Bitcoin. Meanwhile, BitMEX co-founder Arthur Hayes predicted in December that Bitcoin could rally to $200,000 by March 2026, fueled by the Fed adding an estimated $40 billion of liquidity per month.
