Bitcoin experienced a violent price swing on December 29, 2025, surging past $90,000 before collapsing back to its starting point within 12 hours. Market analysts and traders are pointing to on-chain and order book data as evidence of potential market manipulation, suggesting the move was a coordinated "stop-hunt" rather than a genuine trend shift.
The rally began in a market characterized by heavy short exposure, negative funding rates, and elevated open interest. Liquidation levels were concentrated just above a key resistance zone, creating a setup ripe for a forced move. The initial push higher triggered a cascade of short liquidations, with forced buybacks accelerating the price upward. This created the illusion of a bullish breakout, attracting momentum traders.
However, flow data told a different story. Large Bitcoin transfers to centralized exchanges appeared shortly after the spike, indicating distribution and selling into strength by large entities. Once the bulk of short liquidations were complete, the artificial demand vanished. With no strong underlying spot bid, the price rapidly snapped back to its origin, revealing a lack of real support.
Technical analysis of the microstructure supports the manipulation thesis. Binance's Cumulative Volume Delta (CVD) showed a sharp intraday spike driven by aggressive buying, followed by an equally sharp reversal from aggressive selling, ending with net CVD nearly flat. This pattern is indicative of a "push through the book, harvest stops, then fade" sequence. The same V-shaped price spikes and retraces were observed repeatedly across multiple exchanges including Bitstamp and Bybit throughout December, suggesting a structurally fragile and overleveraged market environment.
On-chain data added another layer, showing over 87 BTC moving from Binance to a deposit wallet belonging to market maker Wintermute during the event. While this doesn't prove intent, it indicates professional desk activity during the volatile period. Total liquidations during the event were in the tens of millions of dollars, split relatively evenly between longs and shorts, not indicative of a massive one-sided trade unwind.
The incident highlights the vulnerability of cryptocurrency markets during periods of thin liquidity, such as the holiday season, where order books can be easily moved by well-capitalized actors for short-term profit.
