Bitcoin (BTC) is trading at a major decision point as the year ends, caught between strong resistance near $90,000 and a potential support zone between $70,000 and $65,000. The asset is currently priced near $87,900, with traders closely watching these levels to gauge the next directional move.
A bearish pennant pattern has formed following a 22% price drop, indicating price tightening into a smaller range. Analyst Crypto Patel noted that BTC must break above $90,000 to unlock a potential upside target of $107,000. Failure to do so could see the price target shift down to around $70,000, based on the size of the prior decline, with a further drop to $65,000 remaining possible. Patel emphasized these are "critical" levels requiring close attention.
Adding to the caution, analyst Ali Martinez highlighted a death cross on Bitcoin's weekly chart, which formed three weeks ago when the 10-week moving average crossed below the 50-week moving average. Historical data shows this signal has often preceded deeper pullbacks or prolonged sideways periods, with past drawdowns ranging from -54% to -66%. Martinez suggested the current rebound could resemble a "dead-cat bounce" similar to the one following the 2021 market peak.
On shorter timeframes, Bitcoin faced another rejection near the $90,000 ceiling on Monday, with the 50-day simple moving average halting a bullish move at $90,392. The support trendline from mid-October 2023 is currently containing selling pressure around $87,000. However, repeated rejections near $90,000 keep downside risks intact, especially as the RSI and Stochastic oscillators remain in bearish territory.
Key support is now seen in the 86,260-87,000 area. A break below the lower boundary of the current symmetrical triangle at 86,260 could trigger a decline toward the 84,000–84,300 support zone, which aligns with the 38.2% Fibonacci retracement of the 2022–2025 uptrend. Further selling could then target the psychological $80,000 level and the $76,685 pivot area from March–April 2025.
For the bulls, reclaiming the $90,000–$91,380 resistance zone, which includes the lower boundary of the Ichimoku cloud, is crucial. A decisive break above this barrier could initiate a new bullish phase toward $98,430, though December's high of $94,575 may act as interim resistance.
Longer-term, analyst Daan Crypto Trades noted Bitcoin is approaching the lower band of its regression trend (often called the rainbow chart), which currently spans $60,000 to $80,000. This zone has historically represented where BTC consolidates during bear markets. The asset's behavior at this lower border will be pivotal in determining the trend for early 2026.
