According to a briefing from analysis firm GreeksLive, expectations for a strong bullish breakout in Bitcoin (BTC) before the end of the year are low among English-speaking investors. Macro researcher Adam highlighted a sharply divided market sentiment and a cautious short-term outlook. A significant bearish segment argues that BTC underwent a structural change following the launch of iShares Bitcoin Trust (IBIT) options on November 19, 2024, leading to weak performance during U.S. trading hours and a failure to generate upward momentum.
The analysis points to potential increased volatility around January 6th but notes widespread skepticism about a major year-end breakout. On daily charts, the technical structure remains bearish. Adam criticized Bitcoin's increasing financialization, stating that since the IBIT options launch, BTC has been one of the world's weakest-performing assets in both absolute and risk-adjusted returns. During this period, monthly gains never exceeded 15%, with only about 10% in two months, and moves were predominantly downward during U.S. sessions.
A concerning pattern has emerged: sharp declines in the first two hours after U.S. markets open, followed by prolonged stagnation, and generally weak pricing during the Asian session. This behavior, where U.S. investors quickly sell gains, reduces crypto's attractiveness compared to traditional markets offering similar volatility with FDIC protection and circuit breakers. GreeksLive notes that passive fund flows support traditional markets, while passive selling pressure and peak liquidations are prominent for BTC. The shift from direct BTC custody to packaged products like IBIT also raises long-term concerns about network security and Proof-of-Work systems.
Separately, the much-anticipated "Trump rally" for Bitcoin in 2025 has failed to materialize. Optimism fueled by Donald Trump's pro-crypto rhetoric was overshadowed by macroeconomic pressures. The digital asset market lost roughly $1 trillion in value in Q4 2025, erasing the year's gains. Bitcoin hit an all-time high of $126,000 on October 6th, but Trump's announcement of 100% tariffs on China on October 12th triggered a massive $19 billion liquidation in crypto within 24 hours—the largest on record.
Rachael Lucas, marketing director at Australian exchange BTC Markets, stated that cryptocurrencies are highly sensitive to narratives and global confidence, performing best when investors are optimistic about the economy. She noted, "The Trump administration may be welcoming to crypto, but tariffs and tight monetary policy are overshadowing that positive sentiment." This underscores that macroeconomic factors are more decisive than political stances.
Some experts fear the sector may be entering a new "crypto winter." Christian Catalini, founder of the MIT Cryptoeconomics Lab, argues the decline stems from three structural factors: the October leverage cleanup, risk aversion from U.S.-China trade tensions, and a potential unwinding of corporate crypto holdings. Lucas also linked the pullback to negative sentiment in the AI sector, as some Bitcoin miners shift infrastructure to AI data centers. Despite the bear market, Lucas finds resilience in Bitcoin holding above $80,000 amid these pressures, suggesting the market is not collapsing.
