Nearly 40% of major Bitcoin treasury companies are now trading at a discount to their net asset value (NAV), marking a dramatic reversal from the 2025 boom. According to data from BitcoinTreasuries.net, at least 37 of the top 100 such companies are worth less than the Bitcoin they hold, with discounts ranging from 17% for sector pioneer Strategy to a staggering 61% for Vanadi Coffee.
The trend threatens to unwind the entire treasury playbook, which relied on companies trading at a premium to issue stock and buy more Bitcoin without diluting shareholders. Macro analyst Alex Kruger called the model "an abomination," drawing parallels to the collapse of the Grayscale Bitcoin Trust premium after the launch of spot Bitcoin ETFs in 2020/2021.
Two primary risk factors are pressuring these firms: the potential exclusion from the MSCI index, which prediction site Polymarket gives a 75% chance of occurring by Q1 2026, and compressed mNAV (market value to net asset value) multiples. If mNAV drops below 1, companies are forced to raise debt or liquidate Bitcoin for share buybacks.
Prominent bear and mining tycoon Frank Giustra warns this could lead to a significant Bitcoin sell-off, stating, "If the Bitcoin treasury companies get into trouble, there will be an unwinding, and Bitcoin will trade a lot lower." He believes this could create a better buying opportunity below the current price of $88,000.
However, not all analysts see a market-moving crisis. Grayscale, in its 2026 projection, argues that firms like Strategy have built reserve funds to avoid liquidating holdings and are "unlikely to be a major source of selling pressure." Market expectations for a Strategy dump were below 30% at press time.
Consolidation is seen as the likely path forward. Figures like Katherine Dowling, president of Bitcoin Standard Treasury Company, predict mergers and acquisitions as stronger treasuries acquire weaker ones, a trend already seen with Strive's purchase of Semler Scientific. Despite the turmoil, Bitcoin treasuries collectively hold over 1 million BTC, worth around $96 billion, accounting for 4.9% of Bitcoin's total supply.
