A prominent crypto trader has issued a stark warning that Bitcoin could be headed for a dramatic crash towards $30,000, even as the asset shows signs of a potential bullish breakout from a long-standing bearish pattern. The analysis, shared by trader 'Chiefy', suggests Bitcoin's recent peak near $126,000 may have been a classic bull trap, setting the stage for a brutal move lower. This warning is based on a chart pattern where price fails to hold new highs and former support levels flip to resistance, with momentum indicators turning negative.
However, this extreme bearish scenario is contrasted by current market data and a significant technical development. Bitcoin is currently trading at $93,958, having broken above its 200-day exponential moving average (EMA) for the first time since October 2025. This move places BTC in a position to potentially exit the "death cross" formation—where the 50-day EMA is below the 200-day EMA—that has been in place since mid-November. A sustained move above $95,000 could pave the way for a "golden cross," a major bullish signal.
The market context adds complexity. Bitcoin ended 2025 with a negative 6% performance despite a strong start, in what analysts describe as a "buy the rumor, sell the news" reaction to the Trump administration's crypto policies. Recent geopolitical turmoil, including the detention of Venezuelan President Nicolás Maduro, has driven volatility, with investors seeking hedges. Technical indicators like the Relative Strength Index (RSI) at 65.6 show building momentum without being overbought, while the Average Directional Index (ADX) at 21.3 indicates a weakening downtrend.
Skepticism remains around the $30,000 crash prediction. Such a 70%+ collapse would typically require a major macro trigger, such as a global liquidity shock or aggressive regulatory action. Current on-chain metrics do not show signs of panic selling or heavy distribution by long-term holders, and increased institutional involvement is seen as a stabilizing force. For now, Bitcoin appears to be consolidating gains rather than poised for a historic wipeout.
