Crypto prediction market platform Polymarket has partnered with real estate data provider Parcl to create a new suite of housing price prediction markets. This collaboration allows traders to speculate on the direction of housing prices in major U.S. metropolitan areas without owning physical property.
The partnership, announced on January 5, 2026, follows a public discussion between the companies on December 30, 2025, which quickly evolved into a formal agreement. Under the arrangement, Parcl will supply independent daily housing price indices that serve as settlement references for the markets, while Polymarket will host, list, and operate the prediction markets on its platform.
Initial market templates will focus on major U.S. cities, enabling traders to bet on outcomes such as whether a specific city's housing index will rise or fall over defined periods—including monthly, quarterly, and yearly timeframes. Some markets will also settle when an index reaches a predetermined price level. All settlements will be based on Parcl's publicly verifiable index values, providing transparency and reducing disputes.
"Real estate should be a first-class category in prediction markets," said Polymarket's Matthew Modabber, emphasizing the importance of clear, verifiable data for transparent settlement. Parcl CEO Trevor Bacon described the partnership as part of a "paradigm shift" in how markets express views and signal truth about real estate trends.
This move represents a significant expansion for prediction markets, which have traditionally focused on elections, macro events, sports, and pop culture. While not entirely unprecedented—UK betting exchange Betfair ran housing crash markets in 2008 and during the 2020 pandemic—this integration marks a notable evolution for crypto-based prediction platforms.
The rollout will occur in stages, with both companies working to standardize formats for future listings. The partnership follows Polymarket's recent regulatory milestone: the platform received CFTC approval in November 2025 to operate as a regulated U.S. exchange, which will facilitate direct market access under updated compliance rules. Additionally, Polymarket secured an agreement with TKO Group in November 2025 to bring crypto prediction markets to UFC and Zuffa Boxing events worldwide.
