The cryptocurrency market's recovery in early January 2026 has sparked notable rallies in the memecoin sector, with Official Trump (TRUMP) and dogwifhat (WIF) posting significant gains. The TRUMP token saw an 8.6% increase over 24 hours, with its Open Interest (OI) surging by 35%, indicating heightened speculative activity. This bounce began on January 1st, rising from $4.68 to $5.46, partially buoyed by Bitcoin's climb past $90,000. However, technical indicators like the RSI and a CMF of -0.32 suggest bearish momentum and heavy selling pressure persist, with the token remaining in a long-term downtrend since its April peak of $16.4.
Similarly, dogwifhat (WIF) jumped approximately 13% in 24 hours. Despite the momentum, WIF remains trapped within a multi-month wedge pattern formed since May 2025. Derivative metrics show bullish signs: Open Interest spiked from $55 million to nearly $100 million, and funding rates turned positive on major exchanges like Binance and OKX. This was supported by whale activity, with two entities purchasing over $2.5 million in WIF tokens within 48 hours. However, on-chain data presents a conflicting picture, showing a negative Buys vs. Sells transaction count of -91, indicating more selling than buying by holders, which could challenge a sustained breakout.
The analysis concludes that while short-term momentum and derivative optimism are fueling these memecoin rallies, both face significant headwinds. For TRUMP, a reversal of the higher timeframe downtrend is deemed unlikely, and traders are advised to take profits cautiously. For WIF, a clean breakout from its prolonged consolidation is not guaranteed, as spot holder selling could derail price appreciation, leading to increased volatility near resistance levels.
