Prominent market technician John Bollinger has issued a cautionary note regarding XRP's recent price surge, tempering bullish expectations for the altcoin. In a social media post on January 6, 2026, Bollinger acknowledged XRP's "strong lift" of roughly 32% since the start of the year, which allowed it to outperform other major cryptocurrencies and violently bypass typical resistance levels. However, he argued the underlying technical pattern is "weaker" compared to its peers.
Bollinger's analysis points to a "noisier" volatility profile on the XRP chart, with the BandWidth indicator failing to compress to historical extremes before the price jump. He concluded that the rally is more vulnerable due to a lack of a firm support base, stating the current market hierarchy remains "BTC > ETH > XRP for now." Regarding Ethereum, Bollinger noted it is mirroring Bitcoin's "squeeze and breakout" structure but is "a bit delayed, following not leading."
Separate on-chain data analysis from Alphractal reveals a growing fragmentation in valuation metrics beneath the surface of the rally. The MVRV (Market Value to Realized Value) indicator, which compares current prices to the average cost basis of holders, shows mixed signals across major assets.
Bitcoin shows signs of internal fatigue; while price remains near record highs, each new peak has seen less confirmation from long-term holders, suggesting accumulation is no longer keeping pace with price appreciation. Ethereum displays resilience, with a brief dip into negative MVRV territory quickly met with buyer support, indicating long-term investor defense. In contrast, XRP's declining MVRV trend points to fading holder conviction and a lack of structural support for its rallies. Cardano presents a different picture, with its negative MVRV Z-Score drifting into a zone historically associated with long-term accumulation rather than distribution.
Taken together, these analyses suggest the crypto market is entering a more selective phase where future performance may depend less on broad momentum and more on asset-specific fundamentals and technical strength.
