A recent analysis from on-chain intelligence firm Glassnode, published on June 5, 2025, provides a measured perspective on the current Bitcoin market. The firm's data indicates that while market conditions have improved, Bitcoin perpetual futures funding rates have not yet reached the historical threshold that typically precedes a strong, sustained bullish reversal.
Glassnode tracks the seven-day moving average of funding rates across major centralized exchanges. This rate is a periodic payment between long and short traders in perpetual futures contracts, serving as a key gauge of market sentiment. The firm's historical research establishes a clear benchmark: for a market to transition into a confirmed bull run, funding rates need to stabilize consistently above the 0.01% level, indicating building but not excessive optimism.
The current data presents a nuanced picture. The seven-day moving average recently dipped to around 0% before rebounding modestly. It climbed to approximately 0.005% and has since settled near 0.003% over the past 24 hours. This positive shift away from negative territory reflects a move from bearishness toward a more balanced or slightly optimistic stance among derivatives traders.
However, Glassnode emphasizes that this level remains below the critical 0.01% signal line. The market has not yet generated the sustained, elevated funding rate environment historically associated with the early phases of powerful bullish trends. According to the firm's framework, this places the current Bitcoin market in an "Accumulation / Neutral" phase.
The analysis suggests traders should calibrate expectations. While the risk of a sharp long squeeze may have diminished, conditions for a high-conviction, leveraged long trend trade are not fully present. The report advises integrating this metric with other on-chain signals like exchange net flows and the MVRV ratio for a holistic market view.
