On-chain analysis from blockchain analytics firm Glassnode suggests Bitcoin's sharp decline in late November 2024 likely marked a significant market bottom, with historical data pointing to substantial upside potential in the current cycle.
The key indicator, the Short-Term Holder Profit/Loss Ratio, plummeted to a historic low of 0.013 on November 24, 2024, as Bitcoin's price tumbled toward the $80,000 level. Glassnode defines short-term holders as investors who have held Bitcoin for less than 155 days. At that trough, the seven-day moving average of short-term holder supply in profit fell to approximately 30,000 BTC, while short-term holder supply in loss surged to 2.45 million BTC—the highest level since the FTX collapse in November 2022.
This metric has a strong historical precedent for signaling major turning points. According to Glassnode data, each previous instance of the ratio reaching such extreme lows has marked either a local bottom or the definitive bear market low, including cycles in 2011, 2015, 2018, and 2022.
Since the start of 2026, the market has shown a strong recovery. Bitcoin has rallied approximately 7% to around $94,000. Concurrently, the on-chain metrics have improved dramatically: short-term holder supply in loss has declined to 1.9 million BTC, and supply in profit has rebounded sharply to 850,000 BTC. This brings the current Short-Term Holder Profit/Loss Ratio to roughly 0.45.
Analysts note that historically, when this ratio approaches 1, it tends to move above it and continue expanding, with Bitcoin's price entering a sustained upside phase at the same time. With the ratio still sitting well below 0.5, the data suggests there is significant room for further expansion before reaching equilibrium. Market tops have typically not occurred until the ratio rises toward 100.
The analysis is supported by other improving fundamentals, including consistent positive net flows into spot Bitcoin ETFs, a network hash rate at all-time highs, growing active addresses, and a declining trend in exchange reserves—all pointing to reduced selling pressure and increasing institutional adoption.
Experts like Jameson Lopp, CTO at Casa, and Lex Sokolin, former Global Fintech Co-Head at ConsenSys, caution that while on-chain metrics are valuable, they must be considered alongside macroeconomic factors and regulatory developments. They note that the current environment shows multiple positive indicators aligning, though past performance does not guarantee future results.
