Blockchain analytics firm Bubblemaps has publicly rejected viral allegations that a profitable Polymarket trader, who bet on the removal of Venezuelan President Nicolás Maduro, is linked to a cofounder of the Trump-associated crypto project World Liberty Financial (WLFI). In a detailed thread on X dated January 5, 2026, the firm labeled the on-chain logic behind the claims as "misleading" and "clickbait."
The controversy centers on a Polymarket prediction market asking if Maduro would be removed by a deadline. Shortly before reports of Maduro's capture surfaced, several newly created accounts placed aggressive "Yes" bets, turning approximately $60,000 into over $630,000. One wallet in particular, funded via Coinbase deposits on Solana (SOL) and Ethereum (ETH), converted about $32,000 into nearly $400,000, sparking speculation of insider information.
Bubblemaps conducted a review and found the evidence linking this activity to WLFI weak. The firm argued that a one-day gap between deposits into and out of an exchange is not analytically meaningful, especially when considering only a single asset like SOL. When expanding the analysis to include assets such as USDC and ETH, Bubblemaps identified around 20 other wallets that fit the same alleged pattern within the same time window and value range.
The firm emphasized that exchange deposits can originate from various sources—bank transfers, consolidated older balances, or multiple smaller transactions—factors ignored in the viral claims. "Calling this a 99% match is clickbait," Bubblemaps stated, adding that shared exchange paths and similar naming conventions do not establish wallet ownership or coordination.
While acknowledging the unusual timing of the Polymarket trades, Bubblemaps warned that poor analytical discipline can lead to almost any conclusion if framed aggressively. The firm urged the crypto community to separate credible on-chain evidence from narratives driven by drama, particularly in politically sensitive contexts. As of now, neither Polymarket nor WLFI has announced any internal findings or a formal investigation.
