Bybit, the world's second-largest cryptocurrency exchange by trading volume, has released its comprehensive 2026 Crypto Outlook research report. The annual analysis, developed in collaboration with Block Scholes, examines the key forces expected to shape digital asset markets throughout the coming year, with a primary focus on Bitcoin and the broader crypto ecosystem.
A central thesis of the report challenges the long-held dominance of the four-year crypto market cycle, historically tied to Bitcoin halving events and subsequent price drawdowns. The analysis suggests that while historical patterns remain relevant, their influence is likely diminishing. Instead, macroeconomic policy, institutional participation, and evolving market structure are playing an increasingly critical role in price formation.
The report's key findings are informed by derivatives market data, options-implied probabilities, volatility dynamics, cross-asset correlations, and global macroeconomic conditions. It also assesses regulatory trends and structural developments.
On the macro front, the outlook notes that markets are pricing in further monetary easing by the U.S. Federal Reserve, a backdrop that could broadly support risk assets. It observes that Bitcoin has recently lagged U.S. equities but highlights the potential for a renewed positive correlation with major equity indices if accommodative macro conditions persist.
Derivatives market signals reveal a 10.3% implied probability—based on current options pricing—of Bitcoin reaching $150,000 by the end of 2026. The report clarifies this is a reflection of market pricing, not a direct forecast, and suggests options markets may be conservatively positioned relative to the broader macro and regulatory environment.
While the overall backdrop is described as constructive, the report underscores several policy and event-driven risks. These include a looming decision regarding "Strategy's" potential exclusion from major stock indexes, which could affect sentiment, and the possibility of policy tightening by the Bank of Japan later in 2026, a move that could introduce volatility across asset classes.
For long-term trends, the report identifies real-world asset (RWA) tokenization as a key structural theme for 2026, building on 2025's expansion of stablecoin adoption by regulated institutions. It also highlights increased focus on strengthening crypto market infrastructure, including efforts to address emerging technological risks such as those posed by advances in quantum computing.
The 2026 Crypto Outlook concludes that although market cycles, sentiment, and volatility remain defining features, their interaction is evolving. Increased institutional participation, regulatory engagement, and macroeconomic support may enable digital assets to diverge from historical patterns, even as periods of uncertainty and episodic volatility are expected to continue.
