The upcoming release of U.S. Consumer Price Index (CPI) data for December 2025 on January 13, 2026, is set to be a critical macroeconomic event for cryptocurrency markets. The CPI, a primary gauge of inflation, directly influences Federal Reserve monetary policy decisions, which in turn affect investor risk appetite and liquidity—key drivers for assets like Bitcoin and altcoins.
Historical patterns show significant volatility around CPI announcements. A cooler-than-expected reading, such as the 2.7% print in November 2025, typically fuels bullish momentum by raising expectations for interest rate cuts, weakening the U.S. dollar, and boosting demand for risk-on assets. Conversely, a hotter-than-expected print can trigger short-term sell-offs by strengthening the dollar and prompting fears of tighter monetary policy. Bitcoin, often touted as "digital gold," has in practice behaved more like a risk asset, declining in high-inflation environments despite its inflation-hedge narrative.
The market is currently anticipating the December 2025 data following November's 2.7% reading, the lowest since early 2021. This release precedes the Federal Open Market Committee (FOMC) meeting on January 28, 2026. Prediction markets like Polymarket indicate a 91% probability that the Fed will hold rates steady, with cuts contingent on a lower inflation print. A favorable CPI reading could support Bitcoin's recent price above $90,000 and sustain broader market gains, while an unfavorable one may induce volatility and downward pressure.
Separately, on March 24, 2026, the crypto market exhibited strong performance, with Bitcoin climbing above $85,000 and leading a broad altcoin rally. This surge was partly fueled by a significant rebound in institutional interest, with U.S. spot Bitcoin ETFs recording approximately $744.3 million in net inflows for the week ending March 21, ending a five-week outflow streak. The iShares Bitcoin Trust (IBIT) led with $537.5 million in inflows. Notably, the meme coin OFFICIAL TRUMP (TRUMP) rallied over 7% after a social media endorsement from former U.S. President Donald Trump.
