Credit rating agency Moody's has published its "2026 Global Outlook" report, declaring that stablecoins are undergoing a fundamental transformation from a cryptocurrency-native tool into core institutional market plumbing. The report provides compelling data showing stablecoins processed approximately 87% more settlement volume in 2025 compared to the previous year, reaching an estimated $9 trillion in activity based on on-chain transaction analysis.
Moody's analysis positions fiat-backed stablecoins and tokenized deposits as evolving into "digital cash" for critical financial functions. These include liquidity management, collateral movements, and settlements within an increasingly tokenized global financial system. The agency places stablecoins alongside tokenized bonds, funds, and credit products as part of a broader convergence between traditional finance (TradFi) and digital finance.
The report details that banks, asset managers, and market infrastructure providers spent 2025 running numerous pilots on blockchain settlement networks and tokenization platforms. The goal is to streamline issuance, post-trade processes, and intraday liquidity management. Moody's estimates that across these initiatives, more than $300 billion could be invested in digital finance and infrastructure by 2030 as firms build the necessary rails for large-scale tokenization and programmable settlement.
Within this evolving landscape, stablecoins and tokenized deposits are increasingly acting as the primary settlement asset for cross-border payments, repo transactions, and collateral transfers. The report notes that regulated institutions, including major banks like Citigroup and Société Générale, used cash and US Treasury-backed stablecoins in 2025 to facilitate intraday movements between funds, credit pools, and trading venues. JPM Coin is cited as a prime example of a deposit token model that integrates programmable payments into existing banking infrastructure.
Moody's highlights that regulation is starting to catch up with this shift. The report points to the European Union's Markets in Crypto-Assets Regulation (MiCA) framework, U.S. stablecoin and market structure proposals, and licensing frameworks in Singapore, Hong Kong, and the United Arab Emirates as evidence of a converging global regulatory approach. Specific examples include Société Générale–Forge's EURCV, a bank-issued product developed under the EU's emerging stablecoin framework.
Despite the optimistic outlook, Moody's stresses the transformation is far from risk-free. The report warns that as more value moves onto "digital rails," new forms of operational and counterparty risk could emerge from smart contract bugs, oracle failures, cyberattacks on custody systems, and fragmentation across multiple blockchains. The agency argues that security, interoperability, and governance will be just as critical as regulatory clarity for stablecoins to function as reliable institutional settlement assets and not become new sources of systemic vulnerability.
