The U.S. Supreme Court is poised to issue a landmark ruling on the legality of tariffs imposed during former President Donald Trump's administration, a decision that could force the federal government to refund over $133.5 billion to importers. The tariffs were levied beginning in February 2025 under the International Emergency Economic Powers Act (IEEPA), a 1977 law intended for "unusual and extraordinary" national emergencies.
The Trump administration utilized this statute to justify sweeping duties on imports from China, Mexico, Canada, and later imposed global "reciprocal" tariffs ranging from 10% to 50% on a broad range of goods. Additional punitive duties of 40% were applied to goods from Brazil on August 6, and a 25% duty on Indian goods followed on August 27.
Justices heard arguments in November and may issue rulings as soon as this Friday, though it remains uncertain which specific cases will be covered. The core legal question is whether the use of the IEEPA to impose tariffs was lawful. If the Court rules the tariffs were illegal, the government may be required to reimburse the companies and individuals who paid them, although the exact refund process and timeline remain unclear.
The potential financial impact is significant. While Trump has claimed the U.S. has collected or will collect $600 billion in tariffs, official U.S. Treasury data shows total customs duties reached a record $195 billion in fiscal year 2025. Monthly collections since then have been in the low $30 billion range, making the $133.5 billion potential refund a substantial portion of actual collections.
Market prediction platforms reflect uncertainty around the outcome. On Kalshi, the odds of the Court ruling in Trump's favor are 30%, while on Polymarket they are about 23%—both lower than the roughly 40% seen after oral arguments in November.
Legal experts emphasize the case's importance for defining presidential power and the scope of emergency laws. The ruling could set a major precedent for future trade policy and challenges. Notably, the provided news sources indicate that cryptocurrency markets remain largely unaffected by these proceedings, with the focus squarely on traditional trade, federal revenue, and constitutional law.
