Bitcoin has absorbed a sharp sell-off and stabilized at key support levels, with analysts pointing to technical models and options market mechanics that suggest a significant upward move toward $100,000-$104,000 is imminent. According to Elliott Chart's Quantum Models framework, Bitcoin remains firmly supported around the Q-Structure λ₅ confluence zone, which has absorbed selling pressure and indicates larger participants are defending key levels.
The recent pullback is now classified as a complex corrective phase—specifically Intermediate Wave (2) unfolding through a Zigzag W | Zigzag X | Triangle Y pattern. With this correction largely resolved, Intermediate Wave (3) is now in progress, with Minor Waves 1 and 2 already taking shape. The critical development is an impulsive Minor Wave 3, which historically tends to be the strongest part of an advance. The model points to a near-term Q-Target around $104,444, using the Q-Structure λᵣ projection. This bullish scenario was first projected on November 15 during Bitcoin's decline.
Analyst CyrilXBT noted that Bitcoin experienced a sharp flush but found buyers precisely at critical support, allowing price to stabilize and grind higher. This reaction indicates absorption by strong demand rather than panic selling, with a higher-low structure signaling weakening downside pressure.
Simultaneously, analyst David (@david_eng_mba) explains that Bitcoin's stall below $100,000 stems from temporary options mechanics rather than fundamental barriers. Dealer hedging between $94,000 and $98,000 amplifies price swings, but at $100,000, the same hedging suppresses movement. David describes this as a "launch zone below $100k" with "one gate at $100k."
The hedging structure operates on a timeline: approximately 13% of gamma rolls off on January 16, 38% disappears by January 30, and about 50% vanishes in early February. David emphasizes this resistance is "rented, not permanent" and will weaken as expirations approach.
Despite the price pin, real demand accumulates beneath the surface. ETF inflows average $1.2 billion weekly and continue accelerating, while funding rates hover around 5% APR indicating minimal retail leverage. The spot price sits at $91,000 versus a power-law trend value near $120,000, representing roughly a 24% discount.
David argues hedgers cannot maintain control indefinitely because each roll costs money through spreads, carry, and volatility risk. Time decay continuously erodes the position, and when hedgers roll positions higher, the ceiling rises—signaling the strategy is already failing. The analyst predicts resolution will come from "quiet hedge failure" rather than news catalysts, with hedge power dropping from 81% to 43% in late January.
