Bitcoin's price action has entered a consolidation phase, underperforming the S&P 500 and trading near a crucial breakout level from late 2024. As of January 9, 2026, BTC retreated to approximately $90,384, having declined from a weekly high near $94,762. This mirrors a cautious sentiment in traditional markets, with the S&P 500 itself showing limited gains, up only about 1% for the week and trading around the 6,900 level.
The 60-day correlation between Bitcoin and the S&P 500 has shown little change, remaining notably high. Market analyst Daan Crypto Trades highlighted that BTC is "sitting right at the breakout level from November 2024," a key area for bulls to defend. This persistent correlation, especially during periods of macroeconomic stress, is a focal point for investors assessing diversification and risk.
Analysts point to broader macroeconomic conditions as the primary driver of this market structure, rather than project-specific or regulatory news. Data from Newhedge indicates that over the past five years, the 30-day correlation between BTC and the S&P 500 has often exceeded 0.7. The current environment is influenced by global uncertainties, including US-Venezuela tensions, which are causing investors to gauge macro risks carefully.
Some analysts warn of potential further downside for Bitcoin. Keith Alan, co-founder of Material Indicators, pointed to a forming "macro death cross" on BTC's weekly chart, suggesting a pullback toward the $76,000 level could be possible if the current rebound momentum weakens. Despite this volatility, the fundamental January trading range is seen as remaining intact for now.
