Ethereum (ETH) faces significant headwinds as a key on-chain metric signals weakening institutional demand in the United States. According to a CryptoQuant analysis by CryptoOnchain, the Ethereum Coinbase Premium Difference—which compares ETH prices on Coinbase to those on Binance—has plunged to its lowest level in 10 months, reaching a 14-day moving average of -2.29. This negative reading indicates stronger selling pressure on the U.S.-based Coinbase exchange compared to the global Binance platform.
The analyst emphasized that this trend poses a major obstacle for ETH to reclaim the crucial $3,300 resistance level. Historically, sustainable Ethereum rallies have been accompanied by a positive Coinbase Premium, where U.S. institutional investors demonstrate active accumulation. The current negative gap suggests these investors are not buying at current price levels, weakening a key pillar of demand.
This bearish signal is compounded by net outflows from U.S. spot Ethereum ETFs, which reported $51.5 million in withdrawals on January 8, marking a second consecutive day of outflows. These flows align with a broader sense of caution in the market.
Technically, Ethereum has failed to break above the $3,300 resistance and the 50-day moving average near $3,260. As of the report, ETH was trading near $3,115, still 37% below its August 2025 peak of $4,946. The analyst warned that if the negative trend in the Coinbase Premium persists, ETH risks a further downward correction, with key support levels at $3,000–$3,050 and a more critical level at $2,800.
The conclusion is clear: a breakout above $3,300 is unlikely until the Coinbase Premium turns positive, signaling a return of real demand from U.S. institutional investors in the spot market.
