Hyperliquid (HYPE), a protocol with a $6.3 billion market cap, faces a critical infrastructure gap that must be filled before a potential spot ETF can be approved. Analyst aixbt highlighted on X that any Hyperliquid-related ETF would require approximately 40% exposure to derivatives—specifically deep, liquid futures and perpetual markets—to meet regulatory and structural requirements for approval. Currently, this large-scale derivatives market does not exist.
Major asset managers like BlackRock and Fidelity, which rely on such instruments for risk management and price tracking, would need to build these markets. The timeline for this development is controlled by these institutional players, not by the Hyperliquid protocol itself. Bitwise filed paperwork for a potential HYPE ETF on December 30, 2025, but aixbt emphasized that filing is distinct from the actual construction of large-scale derivatives infrastructure.
Despite the missing derivatives layer, Hyperliquid has demonstrated underlying strength. The token successfully absorbed a $320 million unlock in early January, with its price holding near $26.64. On-chain data shows strong perpetual dominance and approximately $55 million in daily inflows, suggesting demand extends beyond pure speculation.
Concurrently, near-term price action for HYPE is under pressure from whale activity. Fasanara Capital transferred 25,000 HYPE (worth roughly $667,700) to the Bybit exchange, introducing visible sell-side risk. While the same wallet still holds about 575,000 HYPE (worth nearly $15.4 million) off-exchange, the deposit signals potential distribution intent. This activity aligns with a bearish tilt in derivatives positioning, where shorts account for about 52% of positions versus 48% for longs.
Technically, HYPE continues to trade within a well-defined descending channel on the daily chart, with resistance near the $28–$30 zone. Recent rebounds have stalled, and open interest-weighted funding remains positive at around +0.0148%, which, during a downtrend, indicates misaligned leverage and raises the risk of long liquidations if selling pressure increases. Recent sessions have seen about $557,000 in long liquidations versus only $9,700 in short liquidations.
The path forward for Hyperliquid is clear: the ETF narrative has begun, but the essential "market plumbing" of a robust derivatives ecosystem must be built by institutions before Wall Street can fully engage. In the near term, the token faces controlled selling pressure and range-bound price action within its descending channel.
