Smart Money Exits TRUMP Amid Distribution, MELANIA Rallies on Documentary Hype

Jan 9, 2026, 9:06 p.m. 2 sources neutral

Key takeaways:

  • Smart Money's absence from TRUMP suggests the rally was driven by retail speculation rather than institutional conviction.
  • Capital rotation into MELANIA indicates traders are chasing new narrative catalysts over established political meme coins.
  • Watch for whether MELANIA's futures momentum can overcome the extreme volatility typical of post-pump meme assets.

Blockchain analytics firm Nansen reports a stark divergence in the fortunes of two prominent political-themed meme coins. Data from January 3 to January 5 shows the TRUMP token experienced a massive spike in daily trading volume, reaching between $128 million and $147 million—roughly three to four times its normal level. This surge briefly propelled the token's price to $5.65.

However, the rally lacked sustained buying pressure, particularly from so-called "Smart Money" investors. Nansen's analysis of wallet behavior over the past 30 days reveals that not a single Smart Money wallet has purchased TRUMP. Conversely, large holders, including top profit-and-loss traders and whales, have been actively distributing the token. In the past week alone, exchanges recorded $24.4 million in TRUMP inflows (1.6 times the average), with top traders offloading $1.8 million (more than 10 times their normal rate) and whale wallets posting a net outflow of $747,600.

As a result, TRUMP's price action has flattened, consolidating between $5.25 and $5.40. At the time of writing, the token trades around $5.34, down 93% from its all-time high of $75. Its market capitalization has fallen to approximately $1.06 billion.

Meanwhile, capital appears to be rotating into the Solana-based MELANIA token. The token surged 7% on January 9 and is up 28% year-to-date, trading around $0.150 with a market cap of $143 million. Coinglass data indicates a bullish sentiment, with MELANIA's long-to-short ratio currently above 2, meaning long positions outnumber shorts by more than two-to-one.

This renewed speculative interest coincides with an external catalyst: Amazon MGM Studios is set to release a documentary titled "Melania" later this month. Despite the recent bounce, MELANIA remains 99% below its all-time high of $13.73, highlighting the extreme volatility inherent in narrative-driven meme assets.

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