In its annual outlook for 2026, a16z Crypto, the cryptocurrency-focused arm of venture capital giant Andreessen Horowitz, has outlined three major themes it believes will define the next phase of the industry. The firm argues that crypto's impact will extend far beyond blockchains, merging with artificial intelligence (AI) and cryptographic tools to create new paradigms in prediction markets, computing, and media.
The first prediction centers on smarter, more scalable prediction markets. a16z forecasts that by 2026, these markets will become larger, more diverse, and sophisticated. Contracts will expand beyond elections and geopolitics to offer real-time probabilities for complex, intersecting events. The firm notes this growth will raise societal questions about information transparency and verifiability. To address contentious situations where centralized resolution fails, a16z suggests decentralized governance models and oracles powered by large language models (LLMs) could provide solutions. Furthermore, AI-powered agents are expected to trade in these markets, scanning global signals to generate short-term insights and reveal key determinants of complex social events. a16z emphasizes that these markets will complement, not replace, traditional surveys.
The second theme is the expansion of verifiable computing into non-crypto sectors. SNARK-like cryptographic proofs, long confined to blockchain applications, are predicted to cross a new threshold. a16z highlights that the cost and memory requirements for zkVM provers are dropping dramatically, paving the way for verifiable computation to be used everywhere from phones to the cloud. The high parallel processing power of GPUs could make it possible to verify applications running on a CPU with real-time cryptographic evidence.
The third and final prediction introduces the concept of "staked media." In an era of AI-generated content, a16z argues that relying on word-of-mouth for credibility is insufficient. The model proposes that content creators—commentators, analysts, or broadcasters—can use tokens, programmable locks, prediction markets, and on-chain histories to back their claims with publicly verifiable guarantees. By placing tangible economic risk behind their opinions, they build a new form of credibility. a16z sees this as a powerful new signal for transparency and accountability that will exist alongside traditional media.
In a related guidance for crypto builders, a16z Crypto General Partner Arianna Simpson expressed concern about the industry's rush toward trading platforms. She warned that nearly every successful crypto company outside of stablecoins and core infrastructure is either offering or planning to offer trading services, leading to a homogenization of business models. Simpson likened the situation to a "marshmallow test" for founders, suggesting that those who resist the immediate temptation of trading could build more valuable long-term companies by focusing on product-market fit.
Miles Jennings of a16z's policy team identified prolonged U.S. regulatory uncertainty as a primary cause of these industry distortions. He argued that securities laws have been enforced in ways that force decentralized projects into frameworks designed for traditional companies, leading to strategies focused on risk mitigation over innovation. This environment, he said, has discouraged transparency, led to arbitrary token distributions, and resulted in tokens designed to avoid economic value.
The firm anticipates that clearer regulations will allow good-faith builders to compete on a level playing field. This view is supported by a Goldman Sachs report, which identified regulatory reform as the biggest catalyst for institutional crypto adoption in 2026, with 35% of institutions citing uncertainty as the top hurdle and 32% seeing clarity as the top catalyst.
